Russia’s Choice India’s Predicament
Invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 is undoubtedly a new watershed in the international politics that still has not fully recovered from the pale of catastrophic Covid shock. Deontologically it is being seen through many lens viz. Russia’s imperialist posture short of Pax Russica and its chosen security strategy of countering eastward expansion of NATO by teaching a lesson to its defiant western neighbour. On the other hand, NATO’s decision not to challenge Russia in the absence of any formal agreement with Ukraine although US and UK under the Budapest agreement of December 1994 are very much committed to protect Ukraine is in contradiction to America’s lofty rhetoric of holding Russia accountable against such “gravest threat to Euro-Atlantic security” and to “respond to contingencies”. While situation is deteriorating, curiously US under Biden is hesitant to up the ante against Moscow and therefore trying an alternative through waging an economic warfare through clamping more economic embargoes to the level of Iran for putting pressure on it. Time will tell whether and to what extent pressure tactics will work to alter Russian behaviour.
However, it is also an eye opener for India because the implications of her conservative stand in the voting of the UNSC are connected to the emerging situation in South Asia and to neutralise any Russia-China equation. Already India’s stance has received many flakes in the international arena for her abstaining in the voting is being construed as a covert nexus inclined to favour the Russian aggression. Although power itself is the sole driving factor in international politics yet how can we ignore the voice of strong public opinion against this Russian belligerence? That’s apart, can we forget the past when India had to invoke the reasoning of self-defence to protect the endangered Bengali population of then East Pakistan being massacred by the brutal, barbaric campaign of the Pakistan army in 1970-71? Even today how can we ignore the moral overtone of twin points? One is the hidden danger of our tacit approach that sends an ominous message that like Russia’s claim of recognition of Donbus region as sovereign entity, if applied to our Kashmir and plebiscite is taken, what implications might result from it.
Similarly, by abstaining from categorically castigating the act of aggression amounts to unscrupulous political opportunism that in the long run can prove self-damaging especially when we call Chinese action along our boundary to be provocative and want other powers to rebuke the evil geo-political design of the PLA unreservedly. But henceforth there would not be any taker of India’s call against such geopolitical move for land grab.
Third, India’s inability to criticize Russia also goes against her traditionally principled position since the heydays of Nehruvian consensus to favour of territorial unity and integrity of smaller nations in Asia, Africa and Latin America. But why should we be afraid of Russia: is it for military offensive or probable inconvenience to be faced in importing military hardware for which we are traditionally dependent on Soviet Union and now Russia. But it would be a gross mistake if we keep on depending on Russian military hardware or if we think our Central Asia policy would be leveraged by Kremlin. No, for that we need to chalk out our own game plan because Xi Jingping and Putin coming together would always mean India might face isolation from Central Asian or West Asian regional process. At best Russia coming under new rounds of embargoes from the West and the unfolding conflict in the Trans-Atlantic region might open some new channels of opportunities for China, as in a recent take professor Srikant Kondapalli has opined. According to him, it may provide “China once again a strategic opportunity to expand its power in the Indo-Pacific”. But what is of topmost concern for India is the ground created by the Russian actions on Georgia, Crimea and Donbass region to provide a chance to China to attack Taiwan or its neighbours on “legitimate security interests”. So an atmosphere of fear and security dilemma have been created anew that might disturb the balance of power in South Asia. Obviously the scenario does not go to brighten India’s path. Rather insofar as South Asia is concerned, what we find is a new threat perception and changing configuration that might unduly disturb the regional stability. For example, out of five states, Myanmar’s military junta is one which has supported Russia. It is very alarming because Myanmar is also known for its pro-China stand. Besides, another point to be noted is Imran Khan’s visit to Russia on the same day when the invasion was launched. It transpires building up of some unsavoury understanding between Pakistan and Russian leadership in which Pakistan in its present condition of acute economic crisis wouldn’t probably go to offend Russia anew. So it is glaringly conspicuous that India finds herself once again surrounded by hostile pro-Russian configuration of powers that might influence her tacit tilt towards Russia. Herein lies the hidden danger in taking a guileful stance which is anti-war but not anti-aggressor. It cannot be beneficial to promote India’s image and standing in the comity of nations. Similarly India under Modi should also consider taking a position which does not compromise the values that have accorded moral credibility to her decision. Therefore as we cannot bandwagon in favour of NATO for whatever we have seen in past military operations in Libya and Iraq are eye-opener of its naked muscle flexing without any humanitarian compunction. Besides, America’s Indo-Pacific strategy is not solely dependent upon India’s strength. Similarly today we cannot be meekly toeing the line dictated by Putin. It is clear that Ukraine constitutes no threat to Russia except Russia’s perceived security dilemma with eastward expansion of NATO. Now when war is lingering and it is turning into a prestige fight to the US and its European allies, growing Russian impatience to subdue Ukraine militarily would script a new chapter in international politics. So the next episode would be more perilous, polarizing and provocative than before. It is because emerging volatility might provoke Russia to move towards more desperate and wrong steps like nuclear force application.
In the circumstances, India as an aspirant of great power status can neither afford to sit idle nor can it buy the false narrative manufactured by Putin to launch a military offensive to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine. But that does not mean that we should wash our hands off by merely highlighting the need of diplomatic parley and retract to only issuing advisories to our stranded nationals. Rather we need to appreciate that Russia’s actions are as outrageous as America’s because the latter too believes in regime change when a country refuses to budge or turn rogue to endanger American interests masqueraded as universal liberal democratic consensus. This is the real predicament for India because the choice in the current international system between the US on one hand and the Russia-China on the other hand, is not a choice at all in proper sense of the term. Theoretically speaking a choice can only be between at least two diametrically opposite options. As such, to India our positive expectation is her energetic and creative initiative not only to alleviate her own pain but to play a more responsible and activist role to restore peace by rising above the petty calculus of risks or to go beyond issuing concern. In the larger sense India is very much a stake holder in the process, hence absolving the sense of proportionate role-playing cannot be a justified position. This is not for grabbing the news headlines in media but to impart maturity and accountability to our foreign policy. If we are caught in a new cold war situation, it is all the more important to engage accordingly. However, it is ironical that India is moving or rather imitating the Chinese but in a bad manner. As the Chinese are trying to bully the smaller powers and want the world to acquiesce its illegal actions as if military might is a veneer of legality, so perhaps India is thinking to take shelter under the cover of over-cautious approach as an excuse for no further action but historically which is a blunder as Tibet issue proved it long ago.
Written by Dr. Gouri Sankar Nag, Professor and Head, Department of Political Science and Coordinator of the Centre of South Asian Studies, Sidho-Kanho-Birsha University, West Bengal.
