Afghanistan on the cusp of Crisis & India’s Quandary
When India was celebrating her diamond jubilee of independence, dark clouds of acute fear psychosis and desperation were gathering over Afghanistan. With the ferocious speed with which the highly armed contingents of Taliban militia were advancing towards Kabul, the fall of Ashraf Ghani’s government was inevitable. That was exactly what happened on 15th August when the horrible memory of a failed state triggered intense panic and chaos among the civilians who en masse were desperately trying to get into the US airlines at Kabul airport for flight to Qatar or Tashkent and also assembled in numbers to cross the Afghan-Pakistan border for safety and security. At a time when the world has not fully recovered from the severity of Covid wave, it is another mortal blow not only to South Asia’s security and regional stability but its cascading effect seems far-reaching including unsavory memory that it racked up when the Taliban after coming to power 25 years ago had hanged Najibullah in a macabre and shocking manner. Hence the questions abound whether the takeover by the Taliban in the aftermath of US troop withdrawal would bring back similar incidents of a bloody history. We are already witnessing the horrifying episode of daily firing on helpless Afghan and other nationals stuck there and how they are being stampede and with how much agony the mothers are handing over their babies and infants to the US military personnel while many others without valid papers are still unable to cross the border.
The situation is beggar description because while resistance by the Northern Alliance at Panjshir is a but a streak of silver lining, it is really pathetic to see how long Masood will be able to hold the ground when the UN or the US is washing their hands off the humanitarian emergency with only advisories and warnings that future relations with Taliban would depend on latter’s treatment towards women and innocent civilians. It seems to be a futile hope though. The situation of Afghanistan requires immediate emergency relief and expeditious solution to the political crisis under UN supervision because already the ground reality of the country was quite alarming, leading to widespread displacement of several millions Afghans from their homes. Some reports suggests that there were severe hunger coupled with lack of healthcare facilities which made the people more vulnerable to the pandemic. In this situation the most ominous signal is the probability of resurrection of ISIS and Al Qaeda because these jihadist groups would naturally flourish in this fragile state of affair. No doubt, it is an advantage for Pakistan because it is a scope to divert the attention of its people from its acute domestic economic distress to the conflict-prone Afghan theatre. So, if Afghanistan turns into a jihadist stronghold with Pakistan’s ISI abetting it from behind, it would be an ideal launching pad to mount terrorist attack on the Indian territory of Kashmir. Notably the situation is continuously worsening because the Western powers like UK and US are busy in mending their refugee cum visa policy which cannot be a long-term responsible approach to the Afghan crisis. Similarly Russia and China are led by their own deeper game plans including ambivalence to keeping the options open to engage with Taliban government as and when it formally takes over. Although there are grounds of reservations and worries for both Beijing and Moscow because Taliban’s takeover is likely to create a spill-over impact which could embolden the ISIS and which might stimulate the Islamic minority issue in Xinjiang province of China.
Before we delve into deeper analysis of the Afghan situation particularly what should be India’s approach to the issue, it deserves to be mentioned that Afghanistan is a far dangerous terrain than Kashmir or India’s north-east. In such a situation the prospect of winning decisive victory by military might is already a failed strategy as testified by the US frustration after protracted war. It is more difficult terrain due to several factors, one is its deep sectarian and tribal divisions which is complicated and politically divided into various lines that fails to unify the state with consensus, hence operates on the basis of force rather than smooth election unable to create stable regime and secondly, it seems that Afghanistan is trapped by several overlapping crisis, political, economic, constitutional and even rent by foreign ambitions in which Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, China and Russia are deeply involved. Hence today’s Afghanistan is deeply nudged by hostile outside powers who have vested interests in its precious resources, for exploiting it for getting the contract of infrastructure projects, to maintain a situation of stalemate so that armed groups could spread their influence along with violence, corruption and narco-trafficking. It becomes clear from the fact that Taliban in spite of long-drawn-out war with NATO and latter’s use of huge military might, could not be decimated. That means it could not resurrect without its leaders getting sanctuary in Pakistan. Another point that we should keep in mind that the reports of UN Mission on Afghanistan have revealed that main cause of violent attacks in Afghanistan cannot be fully attributed to Taliban. Of course there were hostilities of political nature in which Taliban played its part but there were different other anti-government elements. It implies pockets of deep dissatisfaction within Afghan society for which a sizeable section of people were seething with unrest even during American military control over Afghanistan. But their opinion was not taken into account which indirectly provoked the Taliban to wage more fierce battle to capture power.
Now discovering that the threat in Afghanistan is palpable, India’s stance is on the defensive, primarily focused on evacuation of its stranded nationals. Firstly, India was dismayed with Trump’s announcement last year about troop withdrawal. Secondly, although India did not ruefully protested against Biden’s decision, yet the swiftness with which the situation got deteriorated, was perhaps beyond India’s imagination although India had started shedding her previous reservation against engaging with Taliban. Rather just before the onset of monsoon in our country, the Indian government announced that talks were also being held with the Taliban group focusing on the recent peace process in Afghanistan, instead of the policy of the past when Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar expressed concern about the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan for the overall security ambience in the Indian sub-continent.
It seems that the South Block had no idea of this sudden turn of the situation although the Government sent its NSA Ajit Doval to Afghanistan in early 2021 and also her recent discussion with Anthony Blinken, US Secretary of State included this issue. It is clear that India was almost excluded from the recent rounds of either US or Russian initiated talks on Afghanistan. Rather India’s approach to Afghan theatre was shaped by pro-US tilt in the chemistry of which India failed to take a holistic stock of the situation that the US was not fully concentrating on one theatre, i.e. Afghanistan; instead they “had invaded Iraq, broken that country, helped spawned an even more virulent branch of al-Qaeda…”. Besides the evil axis of China and Pakistan was overtly active not to include India in the Afghan peace process. Moreover during the ongoing Covid situation when the US and China were frantically expanded their influence, India should have adopted more keenly focused approach to take part in the negotiation to gauge the security implication of the changing scenario. However, it seems that either the Taliban was given a safe passage by the US of which India knew nothing or there was Pakistani hand that roundly endorsed the military takeover of Kabul. Notably in a recent press briefing Pakistani Prime Minister accused America for the “mess” in which it left Afghanistan after 20 years of fighting. It is very significant from the point of Pakistan’s persistent search for security against India and its strategic line to use Afghan theatre both as a proxy conflict zone as well as to sabotage India’s huge investment in Afghanistan’s reconstruction. In fact this position turned rigid especially after India’s bold move to abolish article 370 in respect to Kashmir. But India’s quandary vis-à-vis Afghan situation reveals that India failed to read the signals of possible implications of US withdrawal from Afghanistan which emboldened Taliban and catapulted orgy of violence in the space of vacuum of power. Here we required more pro-active engagement but now the fluid situation has been made more sensitive in the face of the occupation of Kabul on 14th August, the Taliban alerted India with the express threat that India would be in danger if India dared to send troops to Afghanistan for any help.
When Taliban group has succeeded in occupying most of Afghanistan’s land, one of its spokesman Suhel Shahin told the news agency that ‘If the Indian Army comes to the aid of the Afghan Army, then it will not be good for them. Everyone has seen what happened to other countries’ troops in Afghanistan.’ Simultaneously Shaheen also praised India’s contribution to the people of Afghanistan. But it should be kept in mind that Shahin also praised India’s contribution to the people of Afghanistan. He said, “India has helped a lot in building bridges, improving infrastructure etc. This has improved the economic condition in Afghanistan. We appreciate this role played by India.”
Inside the heated situation in Afghanistan, India, America and other countries have started repatriating their citizens. However, Shahin said on 14th instant, “We will not do any harm to the people involved in the embassy and diplomatic activities. They will not be targeted.” Although we have seen that Taliban has entered into the Indian Embassy in Kabul although there is no such news of harassing the consular staff of either Chinese or Russian embassy which remains open even amidst the current turmoil.
In fact India’s delicate position vis-à-vis the Doha talks is understandable because first of all characterization of Taliban was problematic because if Taliban was treated as a terrorist organization then there was no point in negotiating with it. So, in India’s changed perception what we can notice is an attitude of shift towards moderation and conciliation towards Taliban. Nevertheless India could not plainly agree with United States of America’s signing an agreement for bringing peace to Afghanistan with the Taliban because this process did not embrace the principle of Afghan led, Afghan owned and Afghan controlled peace process which was insisted upon by India from the start. In this situation, the Qatar-Alliance (India, Germany, Tajikistan etc. along with some other countries) informed, ‘If a government is formed in Afghanistan by using military force instead of any democratic method, that will not be recognized.’ But some experts think that the pace of events does not depend at all on whether these countries recognized Taliban occupation or not. Moreover, international observers have no doubt that there is full co-operation of two big countries like China and Russia apart from Iran and Central Asian Republics behind the resurgence of the Taliban. It may be added here that this resurgence set at naught any possibility of “legitimacy crisis” to weaken the Taliban especially after the death of Mullah Omar in 2015. Also what is very significant this time was the strategy adopted by Taliban. According to Dr. A. Ghosh, “this time they are not aiming for a 1990s-style capture of power, rather they are aiming for a political collapse as opposed to a military takeover of Afghanistan, which would give them significant leverage in the intra-Afghan negotiations.”
In this context, the threat of the Taliban group in power is a matter of considerable concern for India. The fact that the aforesaid situation may further aggravate with millions of refugee entering Pakistan and thus insurgency probability getting increased; that is why, New Delhi is in a state of high alert in regional diplomacy. But it is not only the Foreign Minister Jaishankar, but Mr. Ajit Doval, Prime Minister’s trusted National Security Adviser, who was also given the responsibility to rearrange the policy regarding Kabul and Pakistan. Modi’s Taliban mission was not very fruitful either. By contrast, the government of Afghanistan is also fragile today because it seems that even after Taliban takeover, it will ultimately be a puppet regime acting at the behest of Islamabad; since Mr. Ashraf Ghani, the President of the Afghan government, has fled the country with a huge amount of money leaving the country rulerless. The Presidential Palace and the Parliament House are now under the full control of the Taliban rebels. It is interesting to note in this context that Taliban’s relationship with the countries like Iran, and Russia is now becoming clearer gradually.
On the other hand, America is happy to be able to take their citizens back to the country. For now, the Biden government has no desire to meet any more international obligations. If the sub-continent were at war with itself, it would make no difference to the Biden administration, until its flames spread to affect America. It is to be kept in mind here that it is not only America; the Modi government has disagreed recently with its old friend Russia on the Taliban issue. Besides, neither Britain nor Iran has sided with Mr. Modi on this issue. The Taliban-leadership has assured Russia that Russia can rest assured that terrorism will not spread outside Afghanistan. As a result of it, Moscow does not poke its nose into the issue of Taliban-terrorism. Also similar assurances from Taliban leadership have been received by Iran, India’s original genuine power-partner.
India has also been informed by Britain recently that if the Taliban comes into power, there is no such problem in recognizing the new leadership. The fact is what Great Britain has always thought that for its geo-strategic location, Pakistan is the most effective actor in maintaining security balance in the Afghan-Pakistan region. The role and influence of pro-Pakistani militant groups is likely to increase immensely if this time Afghanistan is completely transformed into a Taliban State. The current situation is moving in that direction. Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is the new name given by these Taliban rebels after occupying the country. In that case, New Delhi will have to fight against them alone for the time being, since India will not get anyone by its side.
Finally, we are reminded that four and half decades ago under internal pressure, the US military quickly withdrew from South Vietnam in this manner. And thereafter, the Viet Cong guerrilla forces supported by North Vietnam occupied the Capital Saigon of South Vietnam. Many Critics of International Relations are finding similarities between the recent events and the American withdrawal of the army from South Vietnam in 1973. At the same time, they are finding the match between the (then) President Nixon’s assurances with the Present President Joe Biden. Nixon also told that it would not be easy for the Communist guerrillas to win South Vietnam. Biden has been severely criticized by some Americans for naïve Afghan policy. It remains to be seen whether he will send troops back to Afghanistan to defend democracy and security or the talks of democracy and human rights are mere rhetoric because leaving the civilians at lurch on the flimsy assumption that Taliban of 2021 is a responsible force is nothing but a travesty of truth.
Written By Professor Dr. Gouri Sankar Nag, Sidho-Kanho-Birsha University, W.B & Dr. Manas Mukul Bandyopadhyay, Associate Professor, Hooghly Mohsin College, W.B.
